Eight years ago, motivated by concern for my six grandchildren and future generations, I began a systematic study of climate change through the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). That work led me to focus on a central omission in mainstream climate modeling: The failure to model global conversion to exclusively organic agriculture.
In 2024, the preprint journal SSRN published my scenario to reduce net projected greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) from 2031 to 2100 could drop by about 98 percent. The abstract concluded, “This model suggests that humanity must choose between extinction and achieving all 17 United National Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs) globally through ecovillages and immigration … with nothing in between.”
The IPCC’s modeling gap
In reviewing the factors causing our current polycrises (global warming, biodiversity loss, and soil depletion), I found that global agriculture and land use (AFOLU) emissions averaged 11.9 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2-equivalent per year (11.9 GtCO2-eq-yr-1) from 2010 to 2019. For context, total global emissions in 2025 reached approximately 57.5 GtCO2-eq.
Notably, the IPCC’s most optimistic mitigation pathways for 2050 rely on “climate-smart agriculture,” a framework that continues to incorporate synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, fungicides, and genetically modified seeds. No IPCC scenario models a global transition to organic or regenerative agriculture. To explore that possibility, I constructed an alternative, system-based scenario.
Organic agriculture drawdown scenario
In 2023, the medical journal Cureus published my findings that transitioning 5 billion hectares to organic agriculture, while doubling global livestock to provide natural fertilization, could result in a net global greenhouse gas sequestration of approximately 24.1 GtCO2-eq per year.
Relative to current Agriculture Forestry and other Land Uses (AFOLU) emissions, this represents a massive 35.0 Gt “swing” annually from current land-use emissions. By switching to global organic methods, we could effectively offset roughly 60 percent of total global greenhouse gases (35.0 GtCO2-eq / 57.5 GtCO2-eq = 0.61). These results are not forecasts; they are contingent, system-level scenarios that assume unprecedented coordination, infrastructure, and social change.
The carbon math of biointensive agriculture
Support for higher sequestration rates comes from decades of work by John Jeavons and Ecology Action in Willits, California. Over more than five decades, their GROW BIOINTENSIVE methods have demonstrated the capacity to rapidly build fertile topsoil high yields, and closed nutrient cycles using hand tools, local composting, no fossil fuel inputs and consume the foods produced locally. Jeavons has also taught biointensive gardening to hundreds of thousands of farmers in over 150 developing countries in the world.
Ecology Action reports the following per-unit-of-production advantages relative to conventional agriculture:
- 67 percent to 88 percent less water use
- ≥50 percent less land required
- 94 percent to 99 percent less energy use
- Two- to six-fold yield increases after soil maturation
- Near-elimination of purchased nutrient inputs
- Soil formation rates far exceeding natural background processes
While these claims may be directionally correct, they remain incompletely verified at scale. Favorable but small trials in developing countries have appeared in peer-reviewed journals; however, large independent replications are lacking. I have therefore treated biointensive performance as an upper-bound scenario, not an established global baseline.
My own experience learning and practicing biointensive methods at The Farm community in Summertown, Tennessee, informed a comparative modeling exercise between conventional organic and biointensive systems.
| Method | Avg. Sequestration Rate (tonnes CO2-eq/hectare/yr) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Conventional No-Till | 0.5 to 2.0 | IPCC / USDA |
| Cover Cropping | 1.8 to 3.7 | Cropaia / FAO |
| Regenerative / Organic Grazing | 3.5 to 8.0 | Rodale Institute |
| GROW BIOINTENSIVE | ~7 to 12 tonnes CO2-eq / hectare / year | Ecology Action / Biointensive ag |
Applying conservative biointensive assumptions (7 to 12 t CO₂-eq/ha/yr) across 5 billion hectares yields:
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- Gross sequestration: ~35 to 60 GtCO₂-eq/year
- Net system impact (including avoided fossil fuel and fertilizer emissions): ~47 to 72 GtCO₂-eq/year
These figures combine soil carbon accumulation with avoided emissions from synthetic nitrogen production, mechanized agriculture, and long-distance transport.
Closing nutrient and energy loops through ecovillages
Ecovillages provide the social and infrastructural context needed to close nutrient and energy loops. Global agriculture and food transport currently emit approximately 8.5 GtCO₂-eq annually from fossil fuel use alone. Localized production, human-powered tools, renewable energy, and safe recycling of human waste (“humanure”) eliminate both the CO₂ emissions from fertilizer manufacture and the nitrous oxide released during application.
Modern industrial agriculture breaks the nitrogen cycle by fixing atmospheric nitrogen with fossil fuels, exporting nutrients in food, and flushing human waste into waterways as pollution. Biointensive and regenerative systems restore this cycle biologically and locally.
Because biointensive systems can produce more food per unit area with higher nutrient density, they could theoretically support the global population on substantially less land, freeing remaining areas for rewilding and biodiversity restoration.
FAO: From organic to climate-smart agriculture
In 2007, the FAO strongly endorsed organic agriculture, citing its ability to increase yields, incomes, and resilience among smallholder farmers without environmental damage. Case studies showed consistent per-hectare productivity gains, directly challenging the claim that organic agriculture cannot feed the world.
Following the 2008 to 2009 global food crisis, policy priorities shifted. Food security became securitized, donors demanded rapid scalability, and by 2010 the FAO introduced Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), deliberately avoiding prescriptive labels such as “organic.” CSA emphasized productivity, adaptation, and mitigation, while remaining agnostic about chemical inputs, GMOs, and fossil fuel dependence.
Conservation organizations and chemical agriculture
Major conservation organizations, including The Nature Conservancy, EDF, and NRDC, permit chemical inputs and GMOs in the agricultural lands they influence or manage. While these organizations have advanced important conservation goals, none have adopted a fully chemical-free or GMO-free agricultural standard on their own lands.
Point Reyes organic farms legally forced to close
In 2025, a legal settlement led by The Nature Conservancy called for commercial ranching at Point Reyes National Seashore to end by late March 2026. This would displace multigenerational farming families operating certified organic farms. Ironically, the land-use alternative favored rewilding over regenerative agriculture, despite the latter’s potential for greater carbon sequestration and human co-benefits. If the response to this blog reaches the House Committee on Natural Resources and Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, the court decision could be reversed.
An alternative scenario: Ecovillages take over the ranchland
Point Reyes National Seashore (17,000 acres of ranchland) could become a flagship ecovillage pilot. Rather than evict ranchers for rewilding, three communities of 1,000 residents each could combine research in biointensive agriculture, renewable energy, ecological monitoring, and metabolic health. Such ecovillages could sequester several times more carbon than rewilding alone, while generating affordable housing and meaningful livelihoods, showing that regeneration and conservation can coexist.
Conclusion
If approximately half of the global population were supported by ecovillage infrastructure across 5 billion hectares of regenerative land, modeled net sequestration could approach 60 GtCO₂-eq per year, sufficient for net global greenhouse gas drawdown. Beyond climate mitigation, this framework offers plausible co-benefits for food security, ecological restoration, social resilience, and long-term peace.
David K. Cundiff is a physician, author, and health care reform advocate whose work centers on transforming the U.S. health care system and addressing broader societal challenges, including climate change. He is the author of Grand Bargains: Fixing Health Care and the Economy, which proposes structural reforms to dramatically reduce health care costs while improving outcomes. His essay “Much Better Healthcare for Way Less Cost” explores accountable care cooperatives and community-based reform. Additional works include Money Driven Medicine – Tests and Treatments That Don’t Work and Whistleblower Doctor: The Politics and Economics of Pain and Dying.
From 1981 to 1998, Dr. Cundiff practiced, taught, and conducted clinical research in internal medicine and pain control at the Los Angeles County + USC Medical Center, where he directed the Cancer and AIDS Pain Service for nine years, and previously held an academic affiliation with Harbor-UCLA Medical Center. After exposing how systemic inefficiencies increased hospital utilization and revenue, he became a whistleblower, an experience documented in Whistleblower Doctor.
Outside his professional work, Dr. Cundiff values time with friends and family, including six grandchildren, and maintains his health through Hatha yoga, meditation, swimming, Zumba, biking, and a diet emphasizing minimally processed organic food.
