Predicting shifts in the health care environment has always been difficult, but this year, the pace of change, driven by regulatory complexity, mounting financial pressures, and artificial intelligence (AI), makes long-term forecasts increasingly uncertain. Each year, TDC Group has predicted emerging health care trends over the next decade, focusing on the challenges, risks, and opportunities that shape the industry. For 2026, in response to increasing complexity, we have highlighted the forces most likely to affect U.S. health care through the coming year.
Our research paper, “Healthcare on the Horizon: Predictions for U.S. Healthcare Through 2026“, lays out some of the most pressing issues medical professionals must address. We are committed to helping guide medical leaders through health care’s evolution, assisting them in making critical decisions that shape the future of patient care.
A picture of the health care landscape
Medical professionals continue to uphold their commitment to delivering high-quality patient care, despite navigating a health care environment characterized by rapid digital innovation, pervasive misinformation, escalating costs, and persistent fragmentation. Burnout remains a critical concern: The majority of physicians would not recommend a medical career to their children, reflecting the sustained pressures of modern practice.
Hospitals face mounting financial challenges as the convergence of increasing medical malpractice losses and reimbursement difficulties drives ongoing facility closures, exacerbating gaps in patient access. Currently, approximately 11 percent of Americans report being unable to access or afford care, a figure likely to rise as health insurance premiums increase in 2026, intensifying burdens on both patients and clinicians.
Some access gaps are being addressed through the expansion of distributed care models, with advanced practice clinicians, including nurse practitioners and physician assistants, working in close collaboration with physicians. These teams rely on well-defined roles and advanced teamwork to optimize care delivery.
The exponential growth of medical knowledge presents a significant challenge for clinicians. AI, with advanced capabilities in information synthesis and pattern recognition, offers the potential to help clinicians manage knowledge overload and streamline administrative tasks such as scheduling, billing, and prior authorization. The field is rapidly evolving from generative AI to agentic AI, introducing new horizons for autonomous technologies. However, rapid AI adoption introduces complex malpractice and liability issues, underscoring the need for clear standards, informed consent, and adaptive legal frameworks.
[Image comparing generative AI and agentic AI architectures within a health care clinical decision support system]
Key predictions for health care this year
Prediction 1, AI integration and clinical trust: AI will permeate all aspects of health care, but its impact on care will depend on the degree of clinician trust in the technology.
Prediction 2, Digital transformation: A $1 trillion migration toward digital-first health care will generate both significant advancements and costly missteps.
Prediction 3, Liability and legal volatility: Social inflation, large verdicts, and AI-related evidence will make the courtroom a focal point for unpredictable liability, with legal precedents lagging behind technological advances.
Prediction 4, Widening access gaps: Liability-related costs, workforce shortages, and reimbursement pressures will force additional hospital closures, further widening disparities in care access.
Prediction 5, Medical liability reform: Tort reform will become a national priority as courts grapple with evolving theories of liability.
Prediction 6, Reproductive health care risks: Ongoing uncertainty and liability surrounding reproductive health care will continue to disrupt established standards and require innovative insurance solutions.
Prediction 7, Care at home: More care will move to patients’ homes, with teams using defined roles to deliver high-quality care.
Prediction 8, Agentic AI and responsibility: Advanced AI will redefine clinical decision-making and accountability.
Prediction 9, Information complexity: The proliferation of chatbots, influencers, and direct-to-consumer advertising will both complicate and simplify evidence-based practice; clinicians will remain central to maintaining trust and sound medical judgment.
Prediction 10, Enduring physician trust: Physicians will continue to be viewed as the trusted source of medical expertise, though the practice environment will change substantially.
Richard E. Anderson is chairman and chief executive officer, The Doctors Company and TDC Group.
Founded and led by physicians, The Doctors Company is relentlessly committed to advancing, protecting, and rewarding the practice of good medicine. The Doctors Company helps hospitals and practices of all sizes manage the complexities of today’s healthcare environment—with expert guidance, resources, and coverage—and is the only medical malpractice insurer with an advocacy program covering all 50 states and the federal level. The Doctors Company is part of TDC Group, the nation’s largest physician-owned provider of insurance and risk management solutions. TDC Group serves the full continuum of care.
