Skip to content
  • About
  • Contact
  • Contribute
  • Book
  • Careers
  • Podcast
  • Recommended
  • Speaking
KevinMD
  • All
  • Physician
  • Practice
  • Policy
  • Finance
  • Conditions
  • .edu
  • Patient
  • Meds
  • Tech
  • Social
  • Video
  • All
  • Physician
  • Practice
  • Policy
  • Finance
  • Conditions
  • .edu
  • Patient
  • Meds
  • Tech
  • Social
  • Video
    • All
    • Physician
    • Practice
    • Policy
    • Finance
    • Conditions
    • .edu
    • Patient
    • Meds
    • Tech
    • Social
    • Video
    • About
    • Contact
    • Contribute
    • Book
    • Careers
    • Podcast
    • Recommended
    • Speaking
KevinMD
  • All
  • Physician
  • Practice
  • Policy
  • Finance
  • Conditions
  • .edu
  • Patient
  • Meds
  • Tech
  • Social
  • Video
    • All
    • Physician
    • Practice
    • Policy
    • Finance
    • Conditions
    • .edu
    • Patient
    • Meds
    • Tech
    • Social
    • Video
    • About
    • Contact
    • Contribute
    • Book
    • Careers
    • Podcast
    • Recommended
    • Speaking
  • About KevinMD | Kevin Pho, MD
  • Be heard on social media’s leading physician voice
  • Contact Kevin
  • Discounted enhanced author page
  • DMCA Policy
  • Establishing, Managing, and Protecting Your Online Reputation: A Social Media Guide for Physicians and Medical Practices
  • Group vs. individual disability insurance for doctors: pros and cons
  • KevinMD influencer opportunities
  • Opinion and commentary by KevinMD
  • Physician burnout speakers to keynote your conference
  • Physician Coaching by KevinMD
  • Physician keynote speaker: Kevin Pho, MD
  • Physician Speaking by KevinMD: a boutique speakers bureau
  • Primary care physician in Nashua, NH | Doctor accepting new patients
  • Privacy Policy
  • Recommended services by KevinMD
  • Terms of Use Agreement
  • Thank you for subscribing to KevinMD
  • Thank you for upgrading to the KevinMD enhanced author page
  • The biggest mistake doctors make when purchasing disability insurance
  • The doctor’s guide to disability insurance: short-term vs. long-term
  • The KevinMD ToolKit
  • Upgrade to the KevinMD enhanced author page
  • Why own-occupation disability insurance is a must for doctors

Medicine requires doctors to constantly manage probabilities

Robert Fenster, MD
Physician
February 14, 2013
Share
Tweet
Share

shutterstock_94210177

“I’d really feel better if we got the MRI,” Ms. James said. “I understand you think it’s a migraine, but I want to know, just in case. Wouldn’t you?”

Ms. James and I sat in her darkened hospital room—the light bothered her eyes and exacerbated her headache. She was a dialysis nurse with many years of experience in the healthcare field, and I was a first-year doctor trying to convince her that she was most likely suffering from a migraine and did not need additional tests.

Ms. James had woken up the morning before with very concerning symptoms. Her head hurt terribly. She got out of bed, but she felt nauseated and had to lie back down. She thought she needed her morning coffee, but she felt too sick to go downstairs to make some. Her headache had worsened, and she began to notice shooting pains in her left arm. She was scared. A few hours later, her daughter arrived to find her mother’s speech was slurred. The daughter called an ambulance.

By the time Ms. James reached the Emergency Department, her speech had improved, but her headache remained. The fluorescent lights bothered her, and the loud noises of the hospital grated her nerves.  A neurology resident was called to evaluate her. He felt that she was most likely experiencing a migraine and recommended that she be given some medication to help with her pain. He thought it was possible that she could have suffered a TIA—a transient ischemic attack, in which the blood supply to a part of the brain is temporarily blocked—but he felt that this was a less likely possibility. He did not think she would need an MRI scan of her brain unless her slurred speech returned.

The craft of medicine requires doctors to constantly manage probabilities.  Indeed, the weighing of likelihood is built into our methodology: we hear patients’ stories, list possible diagnoses, and then rank them according to probability, creating “the differential diagnosis.” We order tests to rule these possibilities in or out and gradually refine the list until one diagnosis remains.  This approach is systematic, but when followed too rigidly leads to unnecessary tests that inflate the cost of care.  Situations occur very frequently in which tests are ordered to eliminate possibilities that are highly unlikely (the “just in case” scenario), or in which the added knowledge of the test would not affect our therapeutic strategy, but we feel a “need to know”.

This latter situation arose with Ms. James. We had two most likely possibilities—a TIA and a migraine—with only an MRI that might help us differentiate between them. However, because Ms. James had additional medical problems like hypertension and diabetes, she was already being treated with the recommended therapies for secondary stroke prevention. In other words, ordering the MRI would probably have no impact on her medical care. It would only satisfy the “need to know”.

The need to know is powerful, on both sides of the doctor-patient relationship. In the October 17, 2012 issue of JAMA, Jutel and McBain point out that our society places a high value on certainty in diagnosis and that this fascination with certainty may have harmful consequences, leading to unnecessary treatments or to tests that do not influence patient care.  Sitting in the hospital room with Ms. James, who was anxious about her diagnosis, I felt the power of the drive for the “need to know”.  It felt as though I was withholding something from her by telling her the reasons an MRI would be unnecessary.  These conversations with patients are not easy, particularly when patients are anxious about their diagnosis, but if we hope to control the cost of healthcare in this country, they are of utmost necessity.

Ultimately, Ms. James got her MRI, which was negative. Her persistence, our discomfort with the uncertainty, and our worry about hard feelings and the omnipresent specter of litigation all played a role.  She felt better knowing. But the decision still nags at me. If we had been able to convince her that fewer tests actually meant better care, perhaps we all could have reached a better outcome.

Robert Fenster is a psychiatry resident and a winner of the 2012 Costs of Care Essay Contest.

Image credit: Shutterstock.com

Prev

2 missed opportunities to teach fall prevention

February 14, 2013 Kevin 6
…
Next

The RUC survives and now our health system is worse off

February 14, 2013 Kevin 28
…

Tagged as: Neurology, Radiology

< Previous Post
2 missed opportunities to teach fall prevention
Next Post >
The RUC survives and now our health system is worse off

ADVERTISEMENT

More in Physician

  • Medical misinformation: Navigating vaccine hesitancy with empathy

    Christine J. Ko, MD
  • The American Board of Internal Medicine maintenance of certification lawsuit: What physicians need to know

    Brian Hudes, MD
  • Physician weight loss strategy: Why willpower isn’t enough in 2026

    Archana Reddy Shrestha, MD
  • Demedicalize dying: Why end-of-life care needs a spiritual reset

    Kevin Haselhorst, MD
  • Physician due process: Surviving the court of public opinion

    Muhamad Aly Rifai, MD
  • Spaced repetition in medicine: Why current apps fail clinicians

    Dr. Sunakshi Bhatia
  • Most Popular

  • Past Week

    • My wife’s story: How DEA and CDC guidelines destroyed our golden years

      Monty Goddard & Richard A. Lawhern, PhD | Conditions
    • Why medical school DEI mission statements matter for future physicians

      Aditi Mahajan, MEd, Laura Malmut, MD, MEd, Jared Stowers, MD, and Khaleel Atkinson | Education
    • Visual language in health care: Why words aren’t enough

      Hamid Moghimi, RPN | Conditions
    • Breast cancer and the daughter who gave everything

      Dr. Damane Zehra | Conditions
    • End-of-life care cost substance use: When compassion meets economic reality

      Brian Hudes, MD | Physician
    • Smart design choices improve patient care outcomes [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
  • Past 6 Months

    • Will AI replace primary care physicians?

      P. Dileep Kumar, MD, MBA | Tech
    • A physician father on the Dobbs decision and reproductive rights

      Travis Walker, MD, MPH | Physician
    • What is the minority tax in medicine?

      Tharini Nagarkar and Maranda C. Ward, EdD, MPH | Education
    • Why the U.S. health care system is failing patients and physicians

      John C. Hagan III, MD | Policy
    • Alex Pretti: a physician’s open letter defending his legacy

      Mousson Berrouet, DO | Physician
    • Why voicemail in outpatient care is failing patients and staff

      Dan Ouellet | Tech
  • Recent Posts

    • Doctors often struggle to separate professional advice from family love [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
    • Beyond weight loss: the expanding benefits of GLP-1 receptor agonists

      Zehra Haider, MD | Meds
    • Medical misinformation: Navigating vaccine hesitancy with empathy

      Christine J. Ko, MD | Physician
    • AI-assisted therapy: Why supervision makes the difference

      Farid Sabet-Sharghi, MD | Conditions
    • When language becomes the barrier: IMGs and autism diagnoses

      Ronald L. Lindsay, MD | Conditions
    • Simple choices prevent chronic disease [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast

Subscribe to KevinMD and never miss a story!

Get free updates delivered free to your inbox.


Find jobs at
Careers by KevinMD.com

Search thousands of physician, PA, NP, and CRNA jobs now.

Learn more

View 23 Comments >

Founded in 2004 by Kevin Pho, MD, KevinMD.com is the web’s leading platform where physicians, advanced practitioners, nurses, medical students, and patients share their insight and tell their stories.

Social

  • Like on Facebook
  • Follow on Twitter
  • Connect on Linkedin
  • Subscribe on Youtube
  • Instagram

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

  • Most Popular

  • Past Week

    • My wife’s story: How DEA and CDC guidelines destroyed our golden years

      Monty Goddard & Richard A. Lawhern, PhD | Conditions
    • Why medical school DEI mission statements matter for future physicians

      Aditi Mahajan, MEd, Laura Malmut, MD, MEd, Jared Stowers, MD, and Khaleel Atkinson | Education
    • Visual language in health care: Why words aren’t enough

      Hamid Moghimi, RPN | Conditions
    • Breast cancer and the daughter who gave everything

      Dr. Damane Zehra | Conditions
    • End-of-life care cost substance use: When compassion meets economic reality

      Brian Hudes, MD | Physician
    • Smart design choices improve patient care outcomes [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
  • Past 6 Months

    • Will AI replace primary care physicians?

      P. Dileep Kumar, MD, MBA | Tech
    • A physician father on the Dobbs decision and reproductive rights

      Travis Walker, MD, MPH | Physician
    • What is the minority tax in medicine?

      Tharini Nagarkar and Maranda C. Ward, EdD, MPH | Education
    • Why the U.S. health care system is failing patients and physicians

      John C. Hagan III, MD | Policy
    • Alex Pretti: a physician’s open letter defending his legacy

      Mousson Berrouet, DO | Physician
    • Why voicemail in outpatient care is failing patients and staff

      Dan Ouellet | Tech
  • Recent Posts

    • Doctors often struggle to separate professional advice from family love [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
    • Beyond weight loss: the expanding benefits of GLP-1 receptor agonists

      Zehra Haider, MD | Meds
    • Medical misinformation: Navigating vaccine hesitancy with empathy

      Christine J. Ko, MD | Physician
    • AI-assisted therapy: Why supervision makes the difference

      Farid Sabet-Sharghi, MD | Conditions
    • When language becomes the barrier: IMGs and autism diagnoses

      Ronald L. Lindsay, MD | Conditions
    • Simple choices prevent chronic disease [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast

MedPage Today Professional

An Everyday Health Property Medpage Today

Copyright © 2026 KevinMD.com | Powered by Astra WordPress Theme

  • Terms of Use | Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • DMCA Policy
All Content © KevinMD, LLC
Site by Outthink Group

Medicine requires doctors to constantly manage probabilities
23 comments

Comments are moderated before they are published. Please read the comment policy.

Loading Comments...