Skip to content
  • About
  • Contact
  • Contribute
  • Book
  • Careers
  • Podcast
  • Recommended
  • Speaking
  • All
  • Physician
  • Practice
  • Policy
  • Finance
  • Conditions
  • .edu
  • Patient
  • Meds
  • Tech
  • Social
  • Video
    • All
    • Physician
    • Practice
    • Policy
    • Finance
    • Conditions
    • .edu
    • Patient
    • Meds
    • Tech
    • Social
    • Video
    • About
    • Contact
    • Contribute
    • Book
    • Careers
    • Podcast
    • Recommended
    • Speaking

Obesity is a complex problem that may not have simple solutions

Arya M. Sharma, MD
Conditions
August 28, 2010
Share
Tweet
Share

A single mom juggling two jobs and four kids may be right in thinking her life is complicated – but it is certainly not complex – at least not in the scientific sense of the word.

In medicine we also differentiate between procedures that are complicated (difficult, requiring skill) and complex (no clear solutions, unknown and incalculable risks, unpredictable outcome).

The best description of complexity was the “simplified” one I found in a book called Black Swans by Nassim Taleb:

“A complex domain is characterized by the following: there is a great degree of interdependence between its elements, both temporal (a variable depends on its past changes), horizontal (variables depend on one another), and diagonal (variable A depends on the past history of variable B). As a result of this interdependence, mechanisms are subjected to positive, reinforcing feedback loops, which cause “fat tails”…In lay terms, moves are exacerbated over time instead of being dampened by counterbalancing forces. Finally, we have nonlinearities that accentuate fat tails.”As some readers may know, the term “fat tails” refers to an unexpectedly thick end or “tail” toward the edges of a distribution curve, indicating an irregularly high likelihood of extreme or catastrophic events.

How is this discussion of complexity relevant to obesity?

When we speak of obesity as a complex problem (and not simply a matter of calories in and calories out), we allude to the complex interactions of a multitude of societal, psychological, and physiological variables that do not allow a ready dissection as to cause and effect (are large portion sizes leading to obesity or do obese people drive the demand for larger portions?).

Perhaps more importantly, complex systems are difficult to model – tweaking the system at one end (e.g. banning pop machines from schools) may lead to unintended consequences elsewhere in the system (e.g. schools have less money to invest in sporting activities).

This means that coming up with system-wide interventions (or rather predicting their effect) with regard to reversing the obesity epidemic will prove challenging. Well-meaning legislators may suddenly find themselves in a game of “whack-a-mole” as the system responds in unpredictable and erratic ways. (Politicians may still choose to pass populistic laws to demonstrate that they are not unresponsive – but no results are guaranteed).

Because of the temporal dissociation that may well occur in complex system, even when solutions look like they seem to be working, only time will tell, as unintended consequences may take years (or generations?) to manifest themselves.

This should not be an excuse to throw up our hands in despair and do nothing. It should, however, be a warning to anyone, who believes to have the “simple” solution to the obesity problem, to tread cautiously and to always expect the unexpected.

Arya M. Sharma is a Professor of Medicine at the University of Alberta who blogs at Dr. Sharma’s Obesity Notes.

Submit a guest post and be heard.

Prev

Contract pregnancy ethics and moral issues

August 27, 2010 Kevin 1
…
Next

Does a stereotypical surgical personality exist?

August 28, 2010 Kevin 8
…

ADVERTISEMENT

Tagged as: Patients

Post navigation

< Previous Post
Contract pregnancy ethics and moral issues
Next Post >
Does a stereotypical surgical personality exist?

ADVERTISEMENT

More by Arya M. Sharma, MD

  • a desk with keyboard and ipad with the kevinmd logo

    Simply knowing about health risks does not change behavior

    Arya M. Sharma, MD
  • Charging passengers by the pound is unfair

    Arya M. Sharma, MD
  • a desk with keyboard and ipad with the kevinmd logo

    Why weight loss advice may be unethical

    Arya M. Sharma, MD

More in Conditions

  • When doctors don’t talk: a silent failure in modern medicine

    Cesar Querimit, Jr.
  • The many faces of physician grief

    Annia Raja, PhD
  • How early care saved my life from silent kidney disease

    Charlie Cloninger
  • Why GLP‑1 drugs should be covered beyond weight loss

    Rodney Lenfant
  • When recurrent UTIs might actually be bladder cancer

    Fara Bellows, MD
  • How chronic stress harms the heart in minority communities

    Monzur Morshed, MD and Kaysan Morshed
  • Most Popular

  • Past Week

    • Health equity in Inland Southern California requires urgent action

      Vishruth Nagam | Policy
    • Could antibiotics beat heart disease where statins failed?

      Larry Kaskel, MD | Conditions
    • How restrictive opioid policies worsen the crisis

      Kayvan Haddadan, MD | Physician
    • Why palliative care is more than just end-of-life support

      Dr. Vishal Parackal | Conditions
    • My improbable survival of stage 4 cancer

      Kelly Curtin-Hallinan, DO | Conditions
    • How Ukrainian doctors sustained diabetes care during the war [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
  • Past 6 Months

    • Why transgender health care needs urgent reform and inclusive practices

      Angela Rodriguez, MD | Conditions
    • COVID-19 was real: a doctor’s frontline account

      Randall S. Fong, MD | Conditions
    • Why primary care doctors are drowning in debt despite saving lives

      John Wei, MD | Physician
    • New student loan caps could shut low-income students out of medicine

      Tom Phan, MD | Physician
    • Why pain doctors face unfair scrutiny and harsh penalties in California

      Kayvan Haddadan, MD | Physician
    • mRNA post vaccination syndrome: Is it real?

      Harry Oken, MD | Conditions
  • Recent Posts

    • How Ukrainian doctors sustained diabetes care during the war [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
    • The backbone of health care is breaking

      Grace Yu, MD | Physician
    • Why doctors must ask for help before burnout escalates

      Diane W. Shannon, MD, MPH | Physician
    • Why medicine is like a jazz solo

      Arthur Lazarus, MD, MBA | Physician
    • Why so many patients ask for drips—and what doctors wish they knew

      Dr. Akintola Aminat Olayinka | Physician
    • Reproductive care after Roe: Why silence is not an option

      Christine Petrin, MD, MPH and Susan Thompson Hingle, MD | Physician

Subscribe to KevinMD and never miss a story!

Get free updates delivered free to your inbox.


Find jobs at
Careers by KevinMD.com

Search thousands of physician, PA, NP, and CRNA jobs now.

Learn more

View 15 Comments >

Founded in 2004 by Kevin Pho, MD, KevinMD.com is the web’s leading platform where physicians, advanced practitioners, nurses, medical students, and patients share their insight and tell their stories.

Social

  • Like on Facebook
  • Follow on Twitter
  • Connect on Linkedin
  • Subscribe on Youtube
  • Instagram

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

  • Most Popular

  • Past Week

    • Health equity in Inland Southern California requires urgent action

      Vishruth Nagam | Policy
    • Could antibiotics beat heart disease where statins failed?

      Larry Kaskel, MD | Conditions
    • How restrictive opioid policies worsen the crisis

      Kayvan Haddadan, MD | Physician
    • Why palliative care is more than just end-of-life support

      Dr. Vishal Parackal | Conditions
    • My improbable survival of stage 4 cancer

      Kelly Curtin-Hallinan, DO | Conditions
    • How Ukrainian doctors sustained diabetes care during the war [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
  • Past 6 Months

    • Why transgender health care needs urgent reform and inclusive practices

      Angela Rodriguez, MD | Conditions
    • COVID-19 was real: a doctor’s frontline account

      Randall S. Fong, MD | Conditions
    • Why primary care doctors are drowning in debt despite saving lives

      John Wei, MD | Physician
    • New student loan caps could shut low-income students out of medicine

      Tom Phan, MD | Physician
    • Why pain doctors face unfair scrutiny and harsh penalties in California

      Kayvan Haddadan, MD | Physician
    • mRNA post vaccination syndrome: Is it real?

      Harry Oken, MD | Conditions
  • Recent Posts

    • How Ukrainian doctors sustained diabetes care during the war [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
    • The backbone of health care is breaking

      Grace Yu, MD | Physician
    • Why doctors must ask for help before burnout escalates

      Diane W. Shannon, MD, MPH | Physician
    • Why medicine is like a jazz solo

      Arthur Lazarus, MD, MBA | Physician
    • Why so many patients ask for drips—and what doctors wish they knew

      Dr. Akintola Aminat Olayinka | Physician
    • Reproductive care after Roe: Why silence is not an option

      Christine Petrin, MD, MPH and Susan Thompson Hingle, MD | Physician

MedPage Today Professional

An Everyday Health Property Medpage Today
  • Terms of Use | Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • DMCA Policy
All Content © KevinMD, LLC
Site by Outthink Group

Obesity is a complex problem that may not have simple solutions
15 comments

Comments are moderated before they are published. Please read the comment policy.

Loading Comments...