Skip to content
  • About
  • Contact
  • Contribute
  • Book
  • Careers
  • Podcast
  • Recommended
  • Speaking
  • All
  • Physician
  • Practice
  • Policy
  • Finance
  • Conditions
  • .edu
  • Patient
  • Meds
  • Tech
  • Social
  • Video
    • All
    • Physician
    • Practice
    • Policy
    • Finance
    • Conditions
    • .edu
    • Patient
    • Meds
    • Tech
    • Social
    • Video
    • About
    • Contact
    • Contribute
    • Book
    • Careers
    • Podcast
    • Recommended
    • Speaking

How the oil shortage will affect hospitals and healthcare

Marya Zilberberg, MD, MPH
Physician
May 31, 2010
Share
Tweet
Share

I believe in the peak oil theory.

Think about it, in a closed system nothing is infinite. Since oil is a product of millions of years of decay, unless we use it at the same rate that is it produced, we will run out. I do not have a crystal ball any more than anyone else I know, so I will not hang my hat on when, but will commit to whether: yes, it will happen. And while a lot of people have conjectured about what the world will look like post-peak oil, there is a surprising paucity of hypotheses or suggestions about healthcare. So, I will try to use my imagination to start to fill this gap.

First, a few facts.

Fact 1: The world, including the healthcare system, runs on cheap oil. The world’s daily use is 80 million barrels, 20 million barrels of which is used in the US, and 70% of those 20 million goes to the transportation sector.

Fact 2: The healthcare sector is a super-user of energy. The US Department of Energy estimates that, “hospitals use 836 trillion BTUs of energy annually and have more than 2.5 times the energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions of commercial office buildings, producing more than 30 pounds of CO2 emissions per square foot.”

As we know, hospitals are incredibly technology-heavy institutions. In addition, literally tons of medicines and plastic disposables made from petroleum are the cornerstone of our healthcare model.

Fact 3: There is no imminent technological solution for the impending oil shortage.

Now, why should you take my predictions of such doom and gloom seriously? Well, for one I am not prophesying doom and gloom. Rather, since forewarned is forearmed, I am reiterating a warning still with time enough for us to start preparing for a different way of life. You don’t believe me that it is coming? Do you believe the US military? Their recent report clearly points to a drop in production and impending shortages of oil. They ought to know, being the biggest global consumer of this resource.

But back to medicine. What will it look like post-peak oil? I am happy to say that you still do not have to trust me, but perhaps Howard Frumkin’s of the CDC thoughts on this topic in JAMA can make you scratch your heads a bit:

Petroleum scarcity will affect the health system in at least 4 ways: through effects on medical supplies and equipment, transportation, energy generation, and food production.

It is worth reading the entire editorial to get the flavor for what is likely to come. At the same time, one can easily engage one’s not too wild imagination to start visualizing the situation. Taking it item by item, medical supplies and equipment are not only manufactured from or with petroleum, but they need oil to get to our hospitals and to run. Transportation needs very little explanation, given our reliance on emergency transportation by such modalities as ambulances and helicopters, as well as the need for regional and national referral centers based on expertise and availability of services.

Frumkin does a nice job talking about energy generation, and the concern here is an increased reliance on coal with its propensity for green house gas emissions, and so on, and so on. Finally, our industrial food production, having moved away from local integrated traditional farming to monocultures supported by automation which runs on oil, relies on additional oil for pesticides and fertilizers and transportation from the farm to the table.

So, what will medicine be like under these circumstances? The reality is that, if we as communities fail to prepare for this change gradually, we will be hit with it abruptly, and you have to admit that sudden and unplanned changes are tougher to deal with than anticipated ones.

I myself do not have all the answers, but I would like to challenge everyone, clinicians, administrators, patients and public alike, to begin this conversation. It would behoove us all to keep this idea in the backs of our minds as we move through our days, so that we can mindfully note what changes have to be made and what infrastructures need to be built to optimize our collective future.

ADVERTISEMENT

Marya Zilberberg is founder and CEO of EviMed Research Group and blogs at Healthcare, etc.

Submit a guest post and be heard.

Prev

Health blog posts of the week, ending May 28, 2010

May 30, 2010 Kevin 2
…
Next

Proton pump inhibitors associated with fracture and C. difficile

May 31, 2010 Kevin 2
…

Tagged as: Hospital-Based Medicine, Public Health & Policy

Post navigation

< Previous Post
Health blog posts of the week, ending May 28, 2010
Next Post >
Proton pump inhibitors associated with fracture and C. difficile

ADVERTISEMENT

More by Marya Zilberberg, MD, MPH

  • a desk with keyboard and ipad with the kevinmd logo

    Doctors are shackled by the stigma of ignorance

    Marya Zilberberg, MD, MPH
  • a desk with keyboard and ipad with the kevinmd logo

    A radical transformation in healthcare decision making is needed

    Marya Zilberberg, MD, MPH
  • a desk with keyboard and ipad with the kevinmd logo

    Turn away from interventions that merely prolong dying

    Marya Zilberberg, MD, MPH

More in Physician

  • Why more doctors are choosing direct care over traditional health care

    Grace Torres-Hodges, DPM, MBA
  • How to handle chronically late patients in your medical practice

    Neil Baum, MD
  • How early meetings and after-hours events penalize physician-mothers

    Samira Jeimy, MD, PhD and Menaka Pai, MD
  • Why medicine must evolve to support modern physicians

    Ryan Nadelson, MD
  • Why listening to parents’ intuition can save lives in pediatric care

    Tokunbo Akande, MD, MPH
  • Finding balance and meaning in medical practice: a holistic approach to professional fulfillment

    Dr. Saad S. Alshohaib
  • Most Popular

  • Past Week

    • Forced voicemail and diagnosis codes are endangering patient access to medications

      Arthur Lazarus, MD, MBA | Meds
    • How President Biden’s cognitive health shapes political and legal trust

      Muhamad Aly Rifai, MD | Conditions
    • The One Big Beautiful Bill and the fragile heart of rural health care

      Holland Haynie, MD | Policy
    • Why timing, not surgery, determines patient survival

      Michael Karch, MD | Conditions
    • Why health care leaders fail at execution—and how to fix it

      Dave Cummings, RN | Policy
    • How digital tools are reshaping the doctor-patient relationship

      Vineet Vishwanath | Tech
  • Past 6 Months

    • Forced voicemail and diagnosis codes are endangering patient access to medications

      Arthur Lazarus, MD, MBA | Meds
    • How President Biden’s cognitive health shapes political and legal trust

      Muhamad Aly Rifai, MD | Conditions
    • Why are medical students turning away from primary care? [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
    • The One Big Beautiful Bill and the fragile heart of rural health care

      Holland Haynie, MD | Policy
    • Why “do no harm” might be harming modern medicine

      Sabooh S. Mubbashar, MD | Physician
    • The hidden health risks in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

      Trevor Lyford, MPH | Policy
  • Recent Posts

    • Pharmacists are key to expanding Medicaid access to digital therapeutics

      Amanda Matter | Meds
    • Why ADHD in women requires a new approach [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
    • AI is already replacing doctors—just not how you think

      Bhargav Raman, MD, MBA | Tech
    • Why doctors must stop ignoring unintentional weight loss in patients with obesity

      Samantha Malley, FNP-C | Conditions
    • Why more doctors are choosing direct care over traditional health care

      Grace Torres-Hodges, DPM, MBA | Physician
    • Why hospitals are quietly capping top doctors’ pay

      Dennis Hursh, Esq | Conditions

Subscribe to KevinMD and never miss a story!

Get free updates delivered free to your inbox.


Find jobs at
Careers by KevinMD.com

Search thousands of physician, PA, NP, and CRNA jobs now.

Learn more

View 11 Comments >

Founded in 2004 by Kevin Pho, MD, KevinMD.com is the web’s leading platform where physicians, advanced practitioners, nurses, medical students, and patients share their insight and tell their stories.

Social

  • Like on Facebook
  • Follow on Twitter
  • Connect on Linkedin
  • Subscribe on Youtube
  • Instagram

ADVERTISEMENT

  • Most Popular

  • Past Week

    • Forced voicemail and diagnosis codes are endangering patient access to medications

      Arthur Lazarus, MD, MBA | Meds
    • How President Biden’s cognitive health shapes political and legal trust

      Muhamad Aly Rifai, MD | Conditions
    • The One Big Beautiful Bill and the fragile heart of rural health care

      Holland Haynie, MD | Policy
    • Why timing, not surgery, determines patient survival

      Michael Karch, MD | Conditions
    • Why health care leaders fail at execution—and how to fix it

      Dave Cummings, RN | Policy
    • How digital tools are reshaping the doctor-patient relationship

      Vineet Vishwanath | Tech
  • Past 6 Months

    • Forced voicemail and diagnosis codes are endangering patient access to medications

      Arthur Lazarus, MD, MBA | Meds
    • How President Biden’s cognitive health shapes political and legal trust

      Muhamad Aly Rifai, MD | Conditions
    • Why are medical students turning away from primary care? [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
    • The One Big Beautiful Bill and the fragile heart of rural health care

      Holland Haynie, MD | Policy
    • Why “do no harm” might be harming modern medicine

      Sabooh S. Mubbashar, MD | Physician
    • The hidden health risks in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

      Trevor Lyford, MPH | Policy
  • Recent Posts

    • Pharmacists are key to expanding Medicaid access to digital therapeutics

      Amanda Matter | Meds
    • Why ADHD in women requires a new approach [PODCAST]

      The Podcast by KevinMD | Podcast
    • AI is already replacing doctors—just not how you think

      Bhargav Raman, MD, MBA | Tech
    • Why doctors must stop ignoring unintentional weight loss in patients with obesity

      Samantha Malley, FNP-C | Conditions
    • Why more doctors are choosing direct care over traditional health care

      Grace Torres-Hodges, DPM, MBA | Physician
    • Why hospitals are quietly capping top doctors’ pay

      Dennis Hursh, Esq | Conditions

MedPage Today Professional

An Everyday Health Property Medpage Today
  • Terms of Use | Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • DMCA Policy
All Content © KevinMD, LLC
Site by Outthink Group

How the oil shortage will affect hospitals and healthcare
11 comments

Comments are moderated before they are published. Please read the comment policy.

Loading Comments...