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The crisis in modern autism diagnosis

Ronald L. Lindsay, MD
Conditions
November 2, 2025
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Autism was never meant to be diagnosed in 15 minutes.

The original vision, born in war-torn Vienna and postwar Baltimore, called for deep observation, multidisciplinary insight, and time. But somewhere between the ideal and the insurance code, we lost the standard.

Today, families navigate a system built for speed, not truth. And children pay the price.

The ideal vs. reality

In theory, pediatricians perform routine developmental surveillance. Screenings like the M-CHAT happen at 18 and 24 months. Evaluators collaborate with early intervention. Families receive timely, culturally attuned answers.

In practice, surveillance is skipped. Nurse practitioners without DBP training manage most concerns. Referrals arrive without context. Families wait months (sometimes years) for answers that should come in weeks.

I’ve bridged both worlds.

Building a true medical home

At Minot Air Force Base, I created a true medical home before the AAP coined the term. Every well-child visit included developmental surveillance. Screenings were non-negotiable. Later, as a civilian, I trained nursing assistants as interpreters who understood both medicine and culture. We color-coded interdisciplinary observations to build diagnostic tables that helped SSDI adjudicators, school districts, and families understand why a child did or didn’t qualify for ASD.

This wasn’t bureaucracy. It was truth synthesis.

Truth doesn’t scale

But truth doesn’t scale when systems optimize for throughput. In 2023, there was just one DBP subspecialist for every 100,000 children in the U.S. Nearly a quarter are at or beyond retirement age. Only 25 to 30 new fellows enter training annually, far too few to plug the gaping hole.

Outside of California and New England, access to DBPs is vanishing. Waitlists stretch 12-18 months. Gold-standard tools like the ADOS-2 and M-CHAT often fail children from marginalized communities due to linguistic and cultural mismatch. The underdiagnosis of minority populations isn’t a glitch. It’s a structural error.

When systems collapse, politics rush in.

On April 10, 2025, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. promised President Trump he would cure autism in 90 days. I’ve seen Kennedy’s vision before: idealistic, unmoored, and ultimately hollow. In 1977, he pitched free heating oil to the Boston indigent population. He wanted start-up money from Boston University’s student government. I challenged it then, invoking Edison’s warning: “Vision without execution is hallucination.” The motion failed.

Forty-eight years later, the illusion remains, but the stakes have grown.

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Kennedy continues to chase discredited theories under the guise of “landmark research,” reviving vaccine conspiracies and gut-brain myths that science buried long ago. Advocates plead for infrastructure and culturally competent care. Political energy funnels into distractions. And in the vacuum of oversight, fraud breeds.

Industrialized false hope

Misinformation isn’t just noise; it’s a business model. Chelation therapy, marketed to “detox” heavy metals, is dangerous and sometimes fatal. I administered it properly to children with lead poisoning, never as a cure for neurodiversity. Hyperbaric oxygen therapy offers no proven benefit for ASD, yet clinics charge up to $10,000 per cycle. Stem cell injections cost up to $50,000. There is zero scientific support for their use in autism.

This isn’t fringe experimentation. It’s industrialized false hope: profitable, predatory, and protected by silence.

Even Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA), once a mainstay of intervention, straddles a dangerous line. Some providers inflate billing, fail to personalize treatment plans, and emphasize normalization over autonomy. One defrauded Medicaid and TRICARE out of $2.7 million.

Resistance to reform

Senator John McCain demanded measurable outcomes for ASD therapy under TRICARE. What he got was resistance. Executives deflected. ABA providers couldn’t produce goals. TRICARE’s classification of ASD as “behavioral health” guaranteed weaker coverage and greater loopholes.

I tried to implement McCain’s directive. That made me a threat. The system labeled me a troublemaker. They didn’t just reject policy; they erased urgency.

This was never about care. It was about control, about who gets to define autism, fund its research, and shape its future.

Four reforms we need now

  • Mandate M-CHAT in primary care. Failure to screen means negligence.
  • Empower early intervention teams to trigger referrals when medicine fails.
  • Elevate DBP to a core pediatric priority, not a luxury.
  • Incentivize DBP training with loan forgiveness and insurance parity.

Autism diagnosis should be a covenant, not a transaction. We may no longer afford the gold standard. But we must never forget what it looks like. Every shortcut, every improvisation, must be measured against the truth we once knew.

I’ve seen both sides, and lived the gap between them.

Smarter care, not shortcuts

In North Dakota, I was the closest thing to a DBP for hundreds of miles. I enlisted allies: Early intervention and speech teams from Minot State University joined me for “infant rodeos.” Quentin Humberd, a Fitzsimons Army Medical Center pediatrician, took my calls. A laminated card in my wallet held direct lines to Denver’s subspecialists. We built a mini interdisciplinary diagnostic hub. I quarterbacked. We flagged concerns early. We acted fast.

Later, at Easter Seals in Peoria, many referrals already had strong early intervention documentation and completed evaluations in speech and OT. What they lacked were two final components: a properly administered ADOS-2 and a medical evaluation. I built a model that honored that work: reviewing each referral, validating data, accepting findings when appropriate, and eliminating redundant evaluations. It wasn’t a shortcut. It was smarter care, a high-integrity fast lane for families already halfway through the diagnostic maze.

The Army model, and its quiet demise

In the Army, I refined the model further. My pediatric nurse practitioner received referrals with strong EI documentation. What remained was a medical evaluation to confirm DSM-5 criteria. A new tool became available: the STAT-MD, developed by Vanderbilt. History-taking took 15-20 minutes. The STAT-MD took 15 more. My PNP would call me, and in under half an hour, we had a physician-confirmed diagnosis.

This wasn’t a shortcut. It was smarter care, utilizing a supremely confident PNP who knew she was close to making the diagnosis herself.

I used both short-track methods during my 17 months at Madigan Army Medical Center. But they were abandoned when I was quietly fired.

When ethics collide with spreadsheets, the system calls you insubordinate. But children don’t need cost-effective; they need truth. And sometimes, the fastest way through the maze is the one built by someone who refuses to cheat.

Ronald L. Lindsay is a retired developmental-behavioral pediatrician whose career spanned military service, academic leadership, and public health reform. His professional trajectory, detailed on LinkedIn, reflects a lifelong commitment to advancing neurodevelopmental science and equitable systems of care.

Dr. Lindsay’s research has appeared in leading journals, including The New England Journal of Medicine, The American Journal of Psychiatry, Archives of General Psychiatry, The Journal of Child and Adolescent Psychopharmacology, and Clinical Pediatrics. His NIH-funded work with the Research Units on Pediatric Psychopharmacology (RUPP) Network helped define evidence-based approaches to autism and related developmental disorders.

As medical director of the Nisonger Center at The Ohio State University, he led the Leadership Education in Neurodevelopmental and Related Disabilities (LEND) Program, training future leaders in interdisciplinary care. His Ohio Rural DBP Clinic Initiative earned national recognition for expanding access in underserved counties, and at Madigan Army Medical Center, he founded Joint Base Lewis-McChord (JBLM) CARES, a $10 million autism resource center for military families.

Dr. Lindsay’s scholarship, profiled on ResearchGate and Doximity, extends across seventeen peer-reviewed articles, eleven book chapters, and forty-five invited lectures, as well as contributions to major academic publishers such as Oxford University Press and McGraw-Hill. His memoir-in-progress, The Quiet Architect, threads testimony, resistance, and civic duty into a reckoning with systems retreat.

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